Is the end in sight? GPU shipments are expected to increase by 10% as mining demand declines

Why is it important: Can we see the first optimistic signs that the beleaguered graphics card market is on track to recover? Right now, it may seem like it isn’t, but there are some positive signs that things are about to change, including GPU shipments are expected to rise by 10% this year and demand from miners to decline.

DigiTimes Asia reports that Asus, MSI, Gigabyte and ASRock all saw significant growth in their graphics card shipments last year and are expected to increase another 10% during 2022.

Regular demand from both businesses and the gaming industry, along with rising Covid-19 cases, component shortages and logistics delays, keep graphics card prices high and affordability low. However, card shipments are forecast to grow this year, while consumer demand is actually declining.

It won’t last forever

It’s not that gamers don’t need the latest graphics cards. The slowdown in consumer demand stems from Ethereum’s upcoming transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. Once this happens, we can expect a decrease in demand for GPUs from miners. Combined with increased shipments, we may see cheaper graphics cards and more in stock.

The DigiTimes Asia report comes after Nvidia’s CFO Colette Kress promised the company would be able to increase shipments of its graphics cards to meet demand in the second half of this year. “We are also partnering with our supply chains to meet our future capacity needs in the second half of … 2022,” Kress said.

However, demand for laptops is not expected to decline. DigiTimes Asia writes that Asus, Dell, HP and Apple have reserved chip capacity for the next 1-2 years and expect laptop shipments to remain flat or increase by 10% year over year in 2022.

We also expect Intel Arc Alchemist graphics to be released in the next few months, hopefully in this first quarter, which should meet some of the demand. In addition, the RX 6500 XT, which arrives on January 19, should be less attractive to miners as it only has 4GB of video memory and a recent report showed that card prices in Europe are no longer rising.

Many don’t expect GPU supply and demand to fully align until 2023, but the second half of this year could be the first in a long time that no credit or eBay is required to buy a new GPU.

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