Weather experts predict a “nearly normal” season with 5-9 potential hurricanes.
The US National Hurricane Center operates as WMORegional Specialized Meteorological Center located in Miami, Florida.
There is a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an “over-normal” season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season, according to forecasters from the Climate Prediction Center.
The hurricane season, covering the Atlantic region, including the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the US East Coast, runs from June 1 to November 30.
NOAA is forecasting 12 to 17 named storms, which means winds of at least 63 kilometers per hour, or 39 mph.
Up to 4 major hurricanes
Among potential hurricanes, he predicts one to four “major hurricanes” — categories three through five — with winds of at least 178 km/h or 111 mph.
The WMO stated that NOAA has “70 percent confidence in these bands.
“It is expected to be less active than in recent years due to competing factors – some of which are dampening the development of the storm and some of which are fueling it – which determine this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season, according to NOAA.” , according to WMO in a press release. release.
The Agency recalled, however, that this requires only one a strong hurricane that hit the land threw back years of growth and development.
Statistics presented at the ongoing World Meteorological Congress show how small island developing States are being disproportionately affected, both in terms of economic impact and loss of life.
Early Warning Imperative
For example, Hurricane Maria in 2017 cost the Caribbean island nation of Dominica stunning 800 percent its gross domestic product.
“Between 1970 and 2021, tropical cyclones (a generic term that includes hurricanes) were the leading cause of recorded human and economic loss worldwide, accounting for more than 2,000 disasters,” the WMO said.
However, the death toll from deadly storms has dropped from about 350,000 in the 1970s to less than 20,000 in 2010–2019. Recorded economic losses in 2010–2019 were $573.2 billion.
“Tropical cyclones are the main killers and one storm can reverse years of social and economic development. The death toll has fallen sharply due to improvements in disaster forecasting, warning and risk reduction. But we can do even more,” said WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas.
“The UN’s ‘Early Warnings for All’ initiative aims to ensure that everyone has access to warnings of life-threatening winds, storm surges and precipitation in the next five years, especially in small island developing states that are at the forefront of climate change “, – he said. said.
Name this storm
Average Atlantic hurricane season 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
A total of 14 named storms occurred during the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, of which eight were hurricanes and two were major hurricanes (Ian and Fiona). Both 2020 and 2021 were so active that the regular list of rotating names was exhausted.
After three La Niña hurricane seasons, there is high potential for El Niño for development this summer, what can suppress the activity of Atlantic hurricanes. The potential impact of El Niño on storm development may be offset by favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic basin.
New Model Reduces Preparation Time
“In a changing climate, the data and experience that NOAA provides to emergency leaders and partners to support decision making before, during, and after a hurricane is more important than ever,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad.
To this end, this year we are implementing a new hurricane forecasting model and extending the tropical cyclone forecast schedule from five days to seven days, which will provide emergency and community leaders more time to prepare for storms.