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The U.S. Supreme Court is leaning to the right – but how far will it go?

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America’s highest court is undeniably shifted to the right in its first term after the death of liberal icon Ruth Bader Ginsburg, experts say, with a blockade of conservative judges exercising their influence to change and decisions.

But the nine Supreme Court justices have handed down nearly 70 decisions in this term that, taken as a whole, paint a more nuanced picture than some conservatives might have hoped when Amy Coney Barrett was. sworn last year as Ginsburg’s replacement – for example, by rejecting a challenge to the signing of Barack Obama’s health care law that Republicans have long hoped to repeal.

Other cases, however, have dampened the power of the 6-3 Conservative majority in a strong relief, such as a decision supporting two voting laws in Arizona that opponents say discriminates against racial minorities, which was decided l last day of the term is correctly divided according to ideological lines.

The court’s appetite for compromise will be put to the test when it returns in the fall to an agenda that already includes contentious issues such as abortion and gun rights.

“Undoubtedly, having Amy Coney Barrett, who is quite conservative, replaces Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who was very liberal, which clearly makes a difference,” said Ilya Somin, a law professor at George Mason University and an adjunct scholar at the libertarian Cato Institute.

“On the other hand… It is wrong to say that this is a monolithically conservative tribunal that is going to radically change enormous areas of constitutional law,” he added.

Legal experts point to a group of four Republican-nominated judges – first judge John Roberts and Donald Trump nominees Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Barrett – who have the ability to decide cases.

“Any two of them can join the three Democrats, and they can join the three Democrats,” said Lee Epstein, a law professor at the University of Washington in St. Louis. “It’s not. . . a court where Democrats have to lose every case. ”

A widely cited decision is the 7-2 court look like dismissing the last Republican challenge to the Affordable Care Act. Stephen Breyer wrote the majority opinion, joined by the other two Liberal judges – Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan – and four Conservative colleagues. The seven judges agreed that the plaintiffs had no reason to complain since they had not suffered any harm under Obama’s top health care reforms. Neil Gorsuch and Samuel Alito disagreed.

Another is that of the court unanimous decision support with student-athletes who have brought an antitrust challenge against the National Collegiate Athletic Association. The nine judges agreed that the restrictions set by the NCAA for scholarships and other benefits were unfair.

“The mix of judges these days is fascinating,” said Jonathan Turley, a professor at George Washington University Law School. “Most opinions have not demonstrated the kind of clear demarcation or robotic responses that critics have suggested.”

Progressives fear, however, that the court may drop further next year, when the bank will hear cases on two of America’s most political issues: abortion and rifles.

Decisions for both are expected in the spring or summer of 2022 – a few months before the mid-term elections, when both houses of Congress will be taking office.

Line up the% of cases in each term showing Uptick in unanimous or nearly unanimous Supreme Court decisions

The case of abortion is challenging Roe vs Wade, the 1973 decision that enshrined a constitutional right to an abortion. Focus on a Mississippi state law banning abortion after 15 weeks. The gun case questions how far states can go in regulating gun rights, especially when weapons are brought out of their own homes.

Legal experts say they expect the Conservative majority to govern in a way that satisfies the “pro-life” or anti-abortion movement, as well as gun owners who will interfere with any limitation of their Second Amendment rights. .

Progressive activists are already on alert following the court’s decision on voting laws in Arizona. “When it comes to cases that deal with democracy and the right to vote, Republican judges act like a blockchain,” said Brian Fallon, executive director of the left-wing Demand Justice group. “Democrats need to treat this like the emergency situation that it is.”

It is unclear how long the bank will be willing to go to overturn previous Supreme Court decisions in the long term – particularly at a time when Roberts and associate judges have indicated they want the court to be seen as a independent institution augusts outside the realm of partisan politics.

“By any metric, it’s the most conservative court in recent memory,” said Debo Adegbile, a colleague at law firm Wilmer Hale. “But the court is an institution.” It is an institution that must think about its legitimacy and credibility in a very fractured political environment and in a very fractured nation. ”

Somin of George Mason University said he thought it was “likely” that the Conservative majority would move the needle in a “more conservative direction … but it matters very much exactly how they move it, and that is far from the case. of course. “

“My assumption is that they want to allow restrictions on abortion, loosen restrictions on weapons, etc.,” said Epstein of the University of Washington in St. Louis. “But how far are they willing to go?”

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Additional reports from Christine Zhang in New York

Court compromises

The two final Supreme Court decisions of this floor were split 6-3 along partisan lines, favoring the Conservative majority. However, several decisions earlier in the term have shown signs of compromise.


California vs Texas

Alba: Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”)

Voted: 7-2

Decision: The court denied an attempt to invalidate the Affordable Care Act, saying the plaintiffs had no grounds to sue. The decision marked the the third time the court rejected the challenges to Obamacare, although the court did not address the question of whether the ACA was constitutional.


Fulton vs. Philadelphia City, Pennsylvania

Alba: Same-sex adoption

Voted: 9-0

Decision: The court ruled that Philadelphia violated the First Amendment when the city did not renew its contract with a Catholic organization that refused to place foster children with same-sex parents. The vote was unanimous, with Chief Justice Roberts giving the majority opinion, joined by the three Liberal judges. However, competing opinions from other conservative judges have criticized the kingdom’s tight focus, dismissing larger issues over the exemption from religious freedom.


National Collegiate Athletic Association vs Alston

Alba: Compensation for student athletes

Voted: 9-0

Decision: The court upheld a lower court decision that the NCAA cannot ban the university from giving benefits in terms of education to student athletes.


Mahanoy Area School District vs BL

Alba: Speech by students outside of school

Voted: 8-1

Decision: The court ruled that a Pennsylvania school district violated the First Amendment when it punished a student for posting a profanity message on Snapchat after he failed to make the varsity team cheerleading.


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